Indian Payments Card market analysis

In recent times, mention of the Indian economy evokes images of growth, opportunities and a new gold rush. However, when it comes to electronic payments systems, India is yet to break out. Payment card volume in India is a fraction of that of Singapore (KPMG Report). Let's take a look at the 2008-09 (April 08 - March 09) statistics


A few observations on the above stats:

• Though debit cards have higher circulation (as they double as ATM cards as well), their usage is significantly lower (even by India's standards) [less than 1 transaction per card per year!]
  
• Credit card transaction volumes are low ($52 per year per card). Coming out of the 2008 market downturn, credit card companies are flying to quality. They are trimming credit limits, canceling cards with minimal usage... Nothing new to the western world, but a new trend in the wild swinging Indian market.
  
• Though the above numbers are small, the market is growing at a CAGR of over 30%. In 2020 the market size will be ... ;-)
  

Turning our sights to the online commerce world, the stats are similar. Online commerce is trending at about USD 3 billion a year (US market of $300B). Typically, ecommerce is 10-15% of the total retail payments card market. However, you will notice that in the Indian payments card market, the ecommerce market is over 20% the size of the retail market. A phenomenon that can be attributed to the cash-dominant brick-n-mortar retail economy (with a sizable parallel counterpart).

With regard to payment card fraud, I do not have data on fraud rates at brick-n-mortar stores (contribution of relevant data is appreciated). According to Al Cameron, Payments Fraud/Loss Prevention Specialist, online payment fraud rates (Card-Not-Present / CNP fraud) is around 3oo bps (US is at 140 bps, and UK at 100 bps).

Even though the Indian ecommerce market is in its infancy, security concerns during online payments are cited as among the top-5 barriers to faster growth. Regulatory authorities in India (RBI) mandated 2FA (Two factor authentication) for online payments from Aug 1, 2009. Going by UK's experience (where CNP fraud dropped for the first time during the first half of 2009) of CNP fraud reducing due to deployment of 2FA, India might also experience a similar benefit. This could help bring more users to the world of online commerce (grow the pie), as well as, increase the bottom line of online merchants and card issuers.

I have not been able to get any data on the benefits expected by the Indian regulators after the implementation of their mandate. If any of you have access to this data, please do share it. I shall post it here and acknowledge your contribution.

If the US does not go down the EMV road...

The debate over whether US should deploy EMV infrastructure or not has been intensifying of late. Some estimate the cost of deploying EMV in the US at $30B. Ms Baxley, retail payments management consultant, observed that Javelin Strategy estimates US EMV transition at a lower $5.5B. She also noted that, in lieu of EMV, leveraging contactless cards and readers [presently being deployed in the US] would adequately meet the payment card security needs while costing significantly less (even lesser than Javelin's estimates). As you might recall, contactless infrastructure being deployed in the US is based on Mag Stripe Data (MSD) fortified with dynamic CVx (in effect making a payment card number a one-time use card number). Please note that in this post, when I refer to US contactless cards/readers, I am referring to MSD with dynamic CVx (dCVx)

Debating card security aspects between EMV and US Contactless is an enticing topic, which can be set aside for another day and another blog.

Assuming that the US heads down the Contactlesspath (a significant leap of faith) as a means to enhance security of payment cards, let us look at the implications to the card payment infrastructure by fast forwarding to 2015 when US has transitioned to the brave new world.

• Cards: Cards would have to support both EMV applet and Contactless applets. Obviously, the cards would have to support both contact and contactless interfaces. Would we still need support for mag stripe on cards, for those still in the 20th century?
• POS infrastructure: Contactless readers supporting both US implementation and the EMV implementation would be necessary. Would US merchants need to offer support for EMV contact feature? Would ROW (Rest of the World) merchants need to support US contactless feature?
• Who is going to pay for retrofitting the global POS infrastructure to support both EMV and US Contactless.
• User Education: ROW consumers will have been educated (hundreds of millions of dollars of expense) of how and where to use contact EMV contact and contactless cards. It would be a very interesting consumer education experience and an expensive customer support issue of educating consumers, when they travel, about when and where contact cards are acceptable.
  

When you look at this picture, don't you long for the good-old-days of magnetic stripe cards, when one size fit all.

One of the lessons emerging from EMV deployments in Europe is that legacy support features (mag stripe on EMV cards) opens a large back door for fraudsters to take advantage of. As EMV cards reduced mail non-receipt, lost/stolen card, and counterfeit card fraud, online fraud and fraud abroad ballooned up. Card Issuers migrating to EMV were hoping for for 30% annual reduction in fraud, but realized only 10% reductions (APACS data), thereby significantly reducing ROI.

There are no silver bullets. However these are things that keep us awake at night.

As we look at the emerging economies of the world, payments card security is not a bottom-line issue (reducing fraud) but a top-line issue which communicates trust and security thereby bringing in large sections of population into the non-cash payments world, thereby growing the pie for all.

Where do you think that the payment card industry needs to be in the G-20 countries by 2015?

When selling shovels is more lucrative - Another look at Trusted Services Managers

It has been a year since I last wrote about TSMs (Sep 14 '08). As you might be aware, TSM is a third-party Trusted Service Manager. This organization would secure manage the card data in a mobile wallet on behalf of a card issuer. In some markets, a TSM is also referred to as a TTP (Trusted Third Party). Since the last I posted about TSMs, some water has flowed under the bridge.

• No visible signs of progress in deployment of NFC in the US
• Subtle changes in the go-to-market strategies of TSMs
• Incumbents are showing their preferences for roles in the post-NFC world
  

I came across Carol Coye Benson's blog Getting the Garden Ready, in which she speaks with Barry McCarthy, President of Mobile Commerce Solutions for First Data. This conversation provides a glimpse of the changing landscape in the TSM space. When Carol talks about Getting the Garden Ready, I hope we are not talking about yet another walled garden. We seem to have enough of such gardens from telcos!

First Data's interest in being a TSM is understandable. They have been providing card issuing services to banks (to 1500 issuers), and would like to continue to have this business. Allowing a third party TSM (e.g., Venyon) to establish relationships with banks/issuers to provision credit cards to mobile wallets would limit the growth of First Data. For First Data, adding TSM capability provides them the ability to deliver cards thru' another channel. Finally, it does not make sense for First Data to contract out card management services on mobile wallets with a TSM (adds another layer of unsustainable overhead).

As you might already know, the industry has a role called Issuing Processor. First Data is an Issuing Processor. They provide issuing services on behalf of a Card Issuer (e.g., a small bank or Credit Union). Card Issuing services include embossing cards, shipping cards and PIN mailers to consumers, activating cards, being part of the [payment] transaction authorization chain... For these services, a Card Issuer (e.g., Credit Union) would pay a fee to the Issuing Processor (e.g, First Data).

The First Data case study provides a feel of where the TSM road is leading to. Each issuer [or issuing processor] (payment card, loyalty card, coupon) will try to provide TSM services themselves so that they protect the client relationships that they have. This implies that the mobile wallet would be managed by the telco/MNO [as a TSM]. There would be containers inside the mobile wallet which would be managed by issuers (payment, loyalty, transit, coupons...). Each of these issuers would be a TSM managing their containers / sub-wallets.

So, what happens to existing TSMs (e.g., Cassis, Venyon, Vivotech...) who have been participating in the many NFC field trials taking place around the world? These TSMs would try to morph themselves into software / platform vendors (the trend has started). Based on the TSM's relationships, they would sell their platform and professional services to the many issuers (telcos, banks, transit companies...) who need these TSM platforms.

This may actually be good news to existing TSMs. There may be more money in selling shovels than in prospecting for gold, i.e., there might be more money in selling TSM platforms than in being a TSM.

What are your thoughts?

Related Post: Does somebody have an edge?

P2P use cases will get NFC started in the US

I came across an interesting post by Celent on Mobile NFC. This report claims that cash displacement is the main motivation behind Mobile NFC deployment. The report claims that there will be an annual revenue increase of $1.83 per debit card for banks.

I agree that cash displacement is a major driver. For small-value transactions, e.g., at a fast-food restaurant or at a drug store, both the merchant and the consumer would like to get thru' the checkout lines quickly. Eliminating cash handling, doing away with signatures for payment card authorizations are definitely desirable.

If banks stand to make $1.83 per card per year from Mobile NFC, there is very little incentive for mobile operators to invest in NFC technology on handsets in the US. Payment cards, the purported killer app in mobile NFC, become marginal. Other apps on Mobile NFC, such as, Loyalty cards and coupons are stretch goals and would become difficult to fund.

Looking at Japan as a trendsetter, Lars (Mobikyo, Japan) had these insights to share:

• Cash replacement is a major use case across a variety of locations, including quick-serve restaurants (QSRs), convenience stores, transit (trains, buses and taxis) and vending machines
• Exchange of information is a major category: Smart posters providing coupons, receive and redeem coupons, tickets..., access information (to unlock a PC)...

These use cases have been the mantra of NFC practitioners the world over. What is daunting about these use cases is that the 'network' is a critical component, which makes NFC deployment a classic chicken-n-egg situation.

P2P (Peer-to-Peer) use cases may help break the NFC logjam in the US. For e.g., when I buy my fancy mobile phone with Bluetooth (obviously this is a 2005/6 scenario), all I need is my fancy Bluetooth headset to start using Bluetooth. I don't have to wait for the ecosystem to be enabled and up-n-running. This instant gratification is necessary for people to fork out their valuable money for new features/gizmos, and get the market going.

We need such P2P instant gratification use cases for Mobile NFC. Exchange of business cards is an example of P2P mobile NFC (if you recall, this use case was used during the early days of Bluetooth as well). However, these uses cases have to substantial (from a business model perspective, to justify OEMs/operators to invest in NFC).

What do you think will help get mobile NFC started in the US?

Impact of Nokia Money on India's mobile commerce landscape

In light of the announcement of Nokia Money, I would like to analyze this development in the context of mobile commerce in India.

Nokia Money is an attempt by the world's largest mobile phone vendor to deploy mobile commerce commercially. Before we dive deep into this post, let's have a quick background on this topic. Nokia invested $70 million in Obopay (analysis). Leveraging their investment in Obopay and the infrastructure that Obopay offers, Nokia brings Nokia Money to market. Also, you may recall that Obopay powers MasterCard Mobile MoneySend (link).

I suspect that Nokia Money will be available on every Nokia mobile phone. Considering that the mobile operator does not subsidize handsets (and consequently control mobile phone configuration) in India, Nokia will be able to take its mobile payment product to market directly.

Financial regulations are a critical piece of any mobile payments puzzle. It is no different in India. RBI, India's financial regulator, unvieled their policy on mobile payments (link). They allowed a fund transfer limit of INR5000 (approx $100) and a daily transaction limit (for goods and services) of INR 10,000 (approx $200). Considering that the biggest sector in India's ecommerce is Online Travel (over 2/3 of ecommerce market), the mobile commerce industry was up in arms claiming that these limits were too constraining [to buy air tickets?].

mChek is the leader in mobile payments in India. Airtel, India's largest mobile service provider, is mChek's first partner. mChek has been used for bill payments, charging airtime (mobile topup)... mChek crossed a million subscribers in January 2009 (link). Airtel SIM cards have mChek on its menu. Other Indian telcos are following this trend.

Obopay does not seem to have crossed the critical 1 Million subscriber mark (otherwise we would have heard about it, right?). By that measure, Obopay / Nokia Money is the challenger. Other service providers in this space include PayMate, ITZCash and NGPay.

A study (June '09) commissioned by Paymate and AC Nielsen estimates the mobile commerce market in India at 5 million users, and is primarily urban and male-centric.

Now that you are updated on history, let us look at the future. How does Nokia Money change the landscape of mobile payments in India? Is the entry of Nokia Money going to change the dynamics of mobile commerce and create a thriving marketplace for small payments (similar to what Nokia did for mobile phones in India)? Are operators better positioned to offer mobile payments?

Will this competition create confusion? For example, to an Airtel subscriber using a Nokia phone, there will be two mobile payment choices and the user can't differentiate the subtle differences between a phone offering and an operator offering. How will the message be packaged in such cases? Will Nokia Money choose to go rural and Aitel/mChek focuses on urban audience? For all the promise of mobile payments in emerging countries, 5 million users in a userbase of over 350 million is dismal.

Who and where will the mobile commerce battles be fought in India? What are your thoughts?

Intuit joins the ACH-based flat-fee band wagon

Intuit has created an ACH-based payment network where merchants pay a flat fee of $0.50 per transaction (link). This is fast work on Intuit's part, coming less than 3 months since they acquired PayCycle for $170 million (link) Intuit, based on its Quickbooks franchise, has relationships with 3.7 million small businesses. The 170 million dollar question is, will this offering gain critical mass where we will see the Intuit bug in enough payment pages?

To contrast this offering, let us look at other similar offerings. NACHA's SVP charges a flat $0.745 per transaction for their transactions (link). There seems to be some transaction for this product at universities, with government agencies opting in as well. PayPal charges merchants a discount rate of approximately 3.9%, which is comparable to what Amazon and Google Checkout charge.

I was talking with a long-time industry insider, who sees the trend towards flat-fee based discount rates. Where do you think the industry is heading?

Card acceptance infrastructure in India: A perspective

I have been scouting Bangalore for innovations in the payments industry. Bangalore is as good a place as any in India to deploy new offerings. The economy is vibrant, consumers willing to try new things, retail space is hyper-competitive with enough investments coming in...

Let me first take a step back and frame the merchant payments space (to help provide context). Retail payments are characterized by:

• It is customary to see a retailer have card acceptance devices from multiple acquirers. Depending on the card provided by the consumer for payment, the retailer decides to run the card thru' the acceptance device that provides him the most favorable terms (which typically results in an 'On-Us' transaction)
• Though there are third-party acquirers (e.g., Venture Infotek), leading card issuers are also acquirers (e.g., ICICI, Citi, HDFC...)
  
• Smaller retailers will charge a fee of about 2% (surcharge) for purchases paid using payment cards. Some of these retailers may also share their POS terminal. They will run the card transaction thru' the neighboring retailer's terminal!
  
• Benefits of India's cash economy (by some estimates, about 50% of India's economy) handily overcomes cash-handling costs borne by the merchant
  
• As multiple acceptance devices are the norm at retailers, deploying new payment products is not as much of a challenge as you do not have to displace incumbents.
• Over 70% of sales are cash-based (based on my informal spot surveys; will update this blog when I am better figures and support links)
  

Quite a few of the high-end retailers accept chip-n-PIN (EMV) cards, though very few card issuers in India have deployed chip-n-PIN cards. This is primarily to cater to tourists and visiting Indian diaspora (high-end high-margin clientele). Indian card issuers seem to have bought time till 2011, by which time they are expected to have rolled out EMV cards. I am keeping my fingers crossed regarding this target date.

It was a pleasant surprise to see PayPass readers at retailers. However, the excitement was tempered after finding out that the deployments were part of a trial. I hope that commercial deployments follow (both by card issuers and acquirers).

[Updated Aug 20 '09] First Data is continuing to push into India, first with their relationship with Kotak Mahindra (link), and next with their association with Yes Bank (link). First Data also offers a payment gateway (Merchant Solutons), in association with Standard Chartered Bank.

While I started off the post talking about Bangalore, I would like it to end talking about Delhi. As you might be aware, Delhi is having a coming-out party of sorts next year. It is hosting the Commonwealth Games 2010. Watch out for unveiling of new payment products next year around this event.

If you are interested in following trends in the Indian Payments industry, this is the conference for you (Digital Payment Conference, Mumbai, Aug 21 2009)