Who cares about US mobile payments

The latest mobile payment announcement (Mercury NewCo) is note worthy.  AT&T and Verizon among them have over 170M subscribers, and would deploy 60M handsets annually (assuming an average of 3-year plans).  Assuming half of the handsets on offer support mobile payments, and a third of those subscribers activate their mobile payment service, we can expect about 10M new mobile payment cardholders each year.

It may not come as a surprise that nearly half a dozen banks offer MasterCard PayPass cards, and 10 issuers offer Visa PayWave cards. These banks have already deployed over 60+M contactless cards over the past 5 years.  There is a 1 in 3 chance that US readers of this blog have a contactless card in their wallet.

You might wonder why I jumped from mobile payments to contactless payments.  Elsewhere in the world, these two payments are synonymous.  I would tap my phone to pay for products/services.  Consequently, I am assuming that this latest announcement is going to be along similar lines.

If the US does not go down the EMV road...

The debate over whether US should deploy EMV infrastructure or not has been intensifying of late. Some estimate the cost of deploying EMV in the US at $30B. Ms Baxley, retail payments management consultant, observed that Javelin Strategy estimates US EMV transition at a lower $5.5B. She also noted that, in lieu of EMV, leveraging contactless cards and readers [presently being deployed in the US] would adequately meet the payment card security needs while costing significantly less (even lesser than Javelin's estimates). As you might recall, contactless infrastructure being deployed in the US is based on Mag Stripe Data (MSD) fortified with dynamic CVx (in effect making a payment card number a one-time use card number). Please note that in this post, when I refer to US contactless cards/readers, I am referring to MSD with dynamic CVx (dCVx)

Debating card security aspects between EMV and US Contactless is an enticing topic, which can be set aside for another day and another blog.

Assuming that the US heads down the Contactlesspath (a significant leap of faith) as a means to enhance security of payment cards, let us look at the implications to the card payment infrastructure by fast forwarding to 2015 when US has transitioned to the brave new world.

• Cards: Cards would have to support both EMV applet and Contactless applets. Obviously, the cards would have to support both contact and contactless interfaces. Would we still need support for mag stripe on cards, for those still in the 20th century?
• POS infrastructure: Contactless readers supporting both US implementation and the EMV implementation would be necessary. Would US merchants need to offer support for EMV contact feature? Would ROW (Rest of the World) merchants need to support US contactless feature?
• Who is going to pay for retrofitting the global POS infrastructure to support both EMV and US Contactless.
• User Education: ROW consumers will have been educated (hundreds of millions of dollars of expense) of how and where to use contact EMV contact and contactless cards. It would be a very interesting consumer education experience and an expensive customer support issue of educating consumers, when they travel, about when and where contact cards are acceptable.
  

When you look at this picture, don't you long for the good-old-days of magnetic stripe cards, when one size fit all.

One of the lessons emerging from EMV deployments in Europe is that legacy support features (mag stripe on EMV cards) opens a large back door for fraudsters to take advantage of. As EMV cards reduced mail non-receipt, lost/stolen card, and counterfeit card fraud, online fraud and fraud abroad ballooned up. Card Issuers migrating to EMV were hoping for for 30% annual reduction in fraud, but realized only 10% reductions (APACS data), thereby significantly reducing ROI.

There are no silver bullets. However these are things that keep us awake at night.

As we look at the emerging economies of the world, payments card security is not a bottom-line issue (reducing fraud) but a top-line issue which communicates trust and security thereby bringing in large sections of population into the non-cash payments world, thereby growing the pie for all.

Where do you think that the payment card industry needs to be in the G-20 countries by 2015?

When selling shovels is more lucrative - Another look at Trusted Services Managers

It has been a year since I last wrote about TSMs (Sep 14 '08). As you might be aware, TSM is a third-party Trusted Service Manager. This organization would secure manage the card data in a mobile wallet on behalf of a card issuer. In some markets, a TSM is also referred to as a TTP (Trusted Third Party). Since the last I posted about TSMs, some water has flowed under the bridge.

• No visible signs of progress in deployment of NFC in the US
• Subtle changes in the go-to-market strategies of TSMs
• Incumbents are showing their preferences for roles in the post-NFC world
  

I came across Carol Coye Benson's blog Getting the Garden Ready, in which she speaks with Barry McCarthy, President of Mobile Commerce Solutions for First Data. This conversation provides a glimpse of the changing landscape in the TSM space. When Carol talks about Getting the Garden Ready, I hope we are not talking about yet another walled garden. We seem to have enough of such gardens from telcos!

First Data's interest in being a TSM is understandable. They have been providing card issuing services to banks (to 1500 issuers), and would like to continue to have this business. Allowing a third party TSM (e.g., Venyon) to establish relationships with banks/issuers to provision credit cards to mobile wallets would limit the growth of First Data. For First Data, adding TSM capability provides them the ability to deliver cards thru' another channel. Finally, it does not make sense for First Data to contract out card management services on mobile wallets with a TSM (adds another layer of unsustainable overhead).

As you might already know, the industry has a role called Issuing Processor. First Data is an Issuing Processor. They provide issuing services on behalf of a Card Issuer (e.g., a small bank or Credit Union). Card Issuing services include embossing cards, shipping cards and PIN mailers to consumers, activating cards, being part of the [payment] transaction authorization chain... For these services, a Card Issuer (e.g., Credit Union) would pay a fee to the Issuing Processor (e.g, First Data).

The First Data case study provides a feel of where the TSM road is leading to. Each issuer [or issuing processor] (payment card, loyalty card, coupon) will try to provide TSM services themselves so that they protect the client relationships that they have. This implies that the mobile wallet would be managed by the telco/MNO [as a TSM]. There would be containers inside the mobile wallet which would be managed by issuers (payment, loyalty, transit, coupons...). Each of these issuers would be a TSM managing their containers / sub-wallets.

So, what happens to existing TSMs (e.g., Cassis, Venyon, Vivotech...) who have been participating in the many NFC field trials taking place around the world? These TSMs would try to morph themselves into software / platform vendors (the trend has started). Based on the TSM's relationships, they would sell their platform and professional services to the many issuers (telcos, banks, transit companies...) who need these TSM platforms.

This may actually be good news to existing TSMs. There may be more money in selling shovels than in prospecting for gold, i.e., there might be more money in selling TSM platforms than in being a TSM.

What are your thoughts?

Related Post: Does somebody have an edge?

P2P use cases will get NFC started in the US

I came across an interesting post by Celent on Mobile NFC. This report claims that cash displacement is the main motivation behind Mobile NFC deployment. The report claims that there will be an annual revenue increase of $1.83 per debit card for banks.

I agree that cash displacement is a major driver. For small-value transactions, e.g., at a fast-food restaurant or at a drug store, both the merchant and the consumer would like to get thru' the checkout lines quickly. Eliminating cash handling, doing away with signatures for payment card authorizations are definitely desirable.

If banks stand to make $1.83 per card per year from Mobile NFC, there is very little incentive for mobile operators to invest in NFC technology on handsets in the US. Payment cards, the purported killer app in mobile NFC, become marginal. Other apps on Mobile NFC, such as, Loyalty cards and coupons are stretch goals and would become difficult to fund.

Looking at Japan as a trendsetter, Lars (Mobikyo, Japan) had these insights to share:

• Cash replacement is a major use case across a variety of locations, including quick-serve restaurants (QSRs), convenience stores, transit (trains, buses and taxis) and vending machines
• Exchange of information is a major category: Smart posters providing coupons, receive and redeem coupons, tickets..., access information (to unlock a PC)...

These use cases have been the mantra of NFC practitioners the world over. What is daunting about these use cases is that the 'network' is a critical component, which makes NFC deployment a classic chicken-n-egg situation.

P2P (Peer-to-Peer) use cases may help break the NFC logjam in the US. For e.g., when I buy my fancy mobile phone with Bluetooth (obviously this is a 2005/6 scenario), all I need is my fancy Bluetooth headset to start using Bluetooth. I don't have to wait for the ecosystem to be enabled and up-n-running. This instant gratification is necessary for people to fork out their valuable money for new features/gizmos, and get the market going.

We need such P2P instant gratification use cases for Mobile NFC. Exchange of business cards is an example of P2P mobile NFC (if you recall, this use case was used during the early days of Bluetooth as well). However, these uses cases have to substantial (from a business model perspective, to justify OEMs/operators to invest in NFC).

What do you think will help get mobile NFC started in the US?

Best Buy suspends NFC reader deployment

A recent issue of RFID Journal discussed contactless payment terminal deployments in North America. The article discussed Best Buy suspending its national deployment of contactless terminal over its disagreement with Visa on how debit cards were processed.

To help understand the issue, let me elaborate with an example. You buy a LCD TV for $500 at Best Buy and choose to pay with your debit card. If you used your magstripe debit card, you would swipe the card, enter your PIN and head home to enjoy your TV. Best Buy would pay about $1 as fees for accepting the card.

Let's look at the scenario where Best Buy has deployed a contactless reader and you whip out your fancy contactless debit card to pay for the LCD TV. You authorize $500 to be debited from your account by providing your PIN and you leave happy. Best Buy would pay about $11 as fees, an extra 1000% for the mistake of deploying contactless readers.

Now you know why Best Buy pulled out these readers. The question is, why did they not pull the readers out earlier. Last I heard, their losses were in 7 digits due to the way contactless PIN Debit transactions were processed by Visa Interlink.

It might be worthwhile to discuss another dimension of deployment of contactless readers here. Visa and MasterCard have positioned contactless payments as an option when speed and convenience are of the essence [for transactions less than $25]. You are at a Coffee Shop. You 'wave' your card to pay the $3 for your caffeine fix and run. No need to sign, no PIN necessary, no receipt. Makes sense. However, for users to get used to waving their cards at readers, these readers need to every where. Otherwise, its one more decision point (and aggravation) for the user to figure out whether they swipe, wave or insert their card. Consequently, Best Buy, Home Depot and other retailers deploying contactless readers are getting us to the critical mass where you can 'wave' whereever we pay. Interchange rules that are currently geared towards speed and convenience need to modified to accommodate ubiquity as well. One hopes that this change will come soon so that Best Buy can go back to having nationwide deployment of contactless readers. I have to say that I enjoyed waving my card at Best Buy readers. Sigh!

[Updated 07Jan2010]: Wanted to inform readers that Best Buys has stopped accepting Visa contactless cards (source).

What do you think?

Contactless in Rome

I was impressed with ATAC, the organization operating mass transit in Rome and a couple other cities in Italy. What impressed me about ATAC is the coordination between the different modes of transport. In Rome, you can ride the train and bus (of course). You could also rent a scooter/motor cycle or even a bicyle.

One of the standard rebuttals I hear from my US friends about why mass transit would/does not work is because of the odd times that they have to run an errand to a place which does not have mass transit connectivity. With other modes of transport that you can rent, such an excuse is only that.

Why do I care about well coordinated mass transit operators? A perfect place for mobile / contactless commerce. To the hammer, the whole world is a nail!

In Rome, like elsewhere in Italy, there a lot of young folks. With mass transit opening the doors to contactless transactions, I expected to see a lot more of contactless payments in the retail world. I was very disappointed when even QSRs and newspaper stands at Termini did not accept contactless payments (transit or bank wallet). The silver lining was the availability of dual interface Metrecard that works for both transit and EMV Visa Electron card.

There seems to be a critical mass of converted audience. Initial inquiries to the cause of this gap seem to indicate that the contactless wave was come, heading south and west from London. Why do you think that there is no commercial deployment of contactless payments outside of tranist in Rome?

US Proximity mobile payments round the corner

The standard refrain around mobile commerce commercial deployments [in the US] is:

• Far East (Japan, Korea, Hong Kong) has been doing this for years. The rest of the world can use this roadmap
  
• Western Europe and US are more competitive/freer markets (as opposed to a handful of dominant players in Japan/Korea), and therefore, have to chart their own course (implying Far East's success is not readily transferable)
  

Business model (the 800# gorilla in the room) aside, I take a whack at understanding what Japan has done and what the 'western' world can learn from it:

Japan 2008-09 (tipping point?): 25% of POS terminals support contactless (400K out of 2.1 million); 40 million of the 90 million mobile phones have contactless / proximity payment capabilities; 780 Million payment cards, 80 million contactless cards, 10 million mobile electronic wallets enabled for contactless payments. Additionally, keep in mind, transit is an intrinsic part of life in Japan where majority of the urban population uses contactless technology.

US retail market: 8 million POS terminals deployed out of which less than 800K have contactless readers; 900 million payment cards in circulation, 400 million cards active, 80 million contactless cards. Needless to say, no phones, mobile wallets... (for proximity payments).

When will the US reach tipping point: Contactless cards getting into wallets of consumers seems to underway. As part of the card replacement cycle, by 2011-12, US might have 300 million cards deployed. At which time consumer education around contactless cards [in our wallets] will start. By 2012, we might have 3 million contactless readers, deployed primarily at cash replacement verticals and industries/stores with higher fraud rates. Given this picture, MNOs (e.g., AT&T, Sprint) will offer proximity payments in their handsets starting in 2012.

What else needs to change: Payment/Debit networks rules around PIN and contactless have to change to enable, for e.g., PIN debit via contactless [for amounts greater than $25] (Thanks to Scott for pointing out the nuance around Debit & PIN).

As deployment of contactless cards and readers takes place, MNOs will work out business models and place orders for phones. We have more than a couple of years to get there.

Do you agree with the above assessment. If this true, would startups serving this market survive till then? If so, how? What can the industry do between now and then to prepare?

Thanks to Steve, Japan for leading me to some of the stats used here.

Disclaimers: Figures mentioned are ball-park numbers, and are at different points in time. The figures are meant to provide a context to the discussion and to the point being made.

1 - K used above indicate thousands of units

Outsourcing product field trials in Web 2.0 world

I came across this news item about Citi being interested in having NFC field-trials in Bangalore, India to help prepare for commercial deployments in the US.

This is an interesting idea. I had heard of outsourcing call centers, development, back office operations... to Bangalore/India. Pharmaceutical companies have been outsourcing field trials of their drug testing to places like India. To Citi, outsourcing NFC field trials was an obvious step in trying to stretch the dollar in trying times.

Would this work though?

How much would a Bangalore merchant promote this new technology while he knows that product/service being tried out is not making its way to his store any time soon? Would the NFC reader be buried somewhere, with the [transient] checkout staff being ignorant of its existence/usage?

I heard that the local transit agency is being roped in for the trial. Makes sense, considering the pivotal role transit plays in the contactless ecosystem. However, would the local transit agency make the effort to actively participate when they know that they are just the lab rats.

The dynamic of India's mobile carriers are very different from that of the US, starting from low ARPUs, to high proportion of prepaid users... I heard that nearly 90% of India's mobile customers are prepaid users.

Would India's cash-based economy, culture... provide Citi the ability to extrapolate results? You get the drift.

Initial reports of the trials came out in September 2008, an update showing up in late Feb '09, with potential start date in Q2'09. It is anybody's guess if and when this trial will happen. What do you think are the odds of Citi being able to pull this off?

Is this the beginning of a new trend/market segment? This question is a little broader one, around innovative ways to field trials and reducing the cost of product development especially in the Web 2.0 paradigm.

NFC / Contactless commerce startups surviving the downturn

Withering on the vine is among the most frustrating experiences for entrepreneurs and investors alike. With the economy in a swoon, a lot of startups are on the ropes. NFC-based / contactless commerce has been just around the corner for a while now. Related startups have participated in many a pilots and have been idling waiting for commercial deployments and resulting revenues. Banks have their own set of problems, and do not expect to participate in commercial deployments any time soon.

These startups should not wait anymore for phone vendors to offer NFC-based phones in volume or for merchants to deploy contactless infrastructure. The silver lining among these dark clouds is that merchants are willing to participate in programs that excites their customers and brings them in to their stores. An alternative way for a user to interact with the merchant infrastructure is to go through the cloud. It would seem like a round-about way to get something done while you are only a few inches apart. However, interacting via the internet will get the revenues right now.

SMS-based mobile commerce has been around for a while now. Instead of having the mobile wallet [ID] on the device, move this ID to the service provider's platform. You don't even need the telco to be actively involved in such an offering. Wallet-in-the-sky with SMS-based interactions can be retrofitted with existing NFC platforms with little effort. Some of the implementations I have seen get the messages across 'near' instantaneously. The user experience does not necessarily have to be clunky. The wow effect can still be delivered to the customer. The retailer's expectations can still be met.

This is but one example of what I am proposing. There are quite a few variants of the above architecture. Such an offering is not sexy. For folks who have been living in the magical world of contactless commerce, the above suggestion is a significant let-down. The consolation is that the dream might live on, and could survive to fight another day.

What are your thoughts? How are you improvising to survive this downturn? What are your suggestions on what the contactless commerce startups should do to become cash flow positive in the near-term.?

Obama effect on payments innovations?!

At a personal level, Obama's victory provides hope and optimism of a new tomorrow. Given the prevailing mood, hope and optimism are the engines that will get the US back on its feet again and restore its place as the leader of the free world. However, the expectations on President-elect Obama and his administration might be a little too much for any mortal to bear, even though that mortal might be Barack Obama

I was keeping this post for the new year. As all of us are being carried away by the developments of this week, I figured it is appropriate to gaze into the crystal ball (and again in the New Year).

Positive Trends

• More use of debit cards, resulting in a cheaper tender for merchants (PIN Debit).
  
• Alternative payment systems to reduce cost of accepting payment cards
• Consolidation among players in the P2P and alternative payments space
• Government use of payment cards to distribute social security and other benefits to citizens
  
• Initial usage models of Android phones-based applications to bridge online and retail
  

Negative

• Commercial deployments of NFC will be delayed
• Delay in deployment of contactless readers at retailers
• Mass transit, the beneficiary of high gasoline prices, might be collateral damage as cities struggle to invest over the next couple of years. The reason this aspect shows up here is because Mass Transit payments have led the deployment of contactless acceptance infrastructure
  

Initial indicators suggest that markets, such as, India have not been affected very badly. It will be interesting to watch for any innovations in the payments space from emerging markets.

ITSO mobile phones

It was heartening to read about the field trials of ITSO compliant phones (Consult Hyperion) in UK. ITSO is an industry organization to promote interoperability between UK Passenger Transport Authorities / Operators and related organizations.

ITSO was formed to build and maintain a specification for secure 'end to end' inter-operable ticketing transactions, utilising relevant ISO and emerging CEN standards.
[From ITSO - About Us ]

In the contactless space, UK seems to be speeding ahead of the traditional smart card leader, France. The payments cards deployment and now a standardized inter-operable transit solution, UK is putting in place the basic building blocks

It is interesting to note that both the payments space and ITSO provide support for loyalty. However, there is no standard, that I am aware of, for loyalty on smart cards (at least for applet interaction between 'card' and 'reader'). Support for loyalty by both standards recognizes the valuable grease for the wheel. However, lack of standards in the loyalty space might indicate a choke point for commercial scalability.

O2 is the operator who is the common thread for both the payments field trials in London, and the ITSO trials with the NoWcard. It would be interesting if Venyon, the OTA service provider for the London payments field trials, is also involved in the ITSO field trials (though not mentioned in the CHYP website). Finally, it would not be surprising to find out that the O2 SWP phones (SIM as a secure element) used in the payments field trials is being used in the ITSO trials as well.

Could banks take the lead in ushering in NFC phones?

Innovative and aggressive banks are trying different approaches in the marketplace to break the deadlock that has stalled NFC mobile devices getting to market. Banks with strong acquiring/merchant and card issuing business have an incentive to deploy NFC mobile devices, while not waiting for the MNOs to show up. These approaches include:

1. Bank sets up MVNO. e.g., Rabo Mobiel
2. Bank issues / distributes NFC phones, might start off this journey by distributing NFC tags. E.g., Garanti Bank, Turkey. The user retains their MNO
   
3. Bank subsidizes phones with separate secure element
   

Bank sets up MVNO and offers cutting edge financial services, including NFC phones. Example: Rabo Mobiel. Rabo Bank is a Dutch-based bank. Rabo Mobiel is a MVNO which offers value-added retail and financial products and services, in addition, to traditional telco services

Advantages:

• Bank can offer subsidized phone with optimized features (e.g., SIM but no separate secure element)
  

Disadvantages:

• To keep costs down, the phones offered by the MVNO would be basic no-frill devices. This may not appeal to early adopters or to niche audience
• Bank may not have core competence in being a MVNO
  

Where could this work: Europe

Why:

• MVNOs have been more successful in Europe
• Smaller markets with reasonably homogeneous demographics
• Aggressive banks could use this tactic to challenge incumbents
  
• MVNOs have had a tough record in the US, as it is difficult to appeal to a broad enough range of audience to reach critical mass. After the events of this week, I do not see any US bank having an appetite for such risk
  

Bank offers bank-branded NFC phone (separate secure element), with the user retaining their existing MNO/service provider. An early variation of such an offering could be Garanti Bank, Turkey providing NFC tags to its customers

Advantages:

• Bank has access to secure element on phone to provision cards...
• Bank does not have to get into a MVNO business, which typically is not the bank's core competency
• Bank can optimize the mobile device to suit its requirements
  

Disadvantages:

• Phones offered by the bank could be basic no-frill devices, which may be rejected by the larger audience
• Users not anxious to give up their existing phone as this is a personal device /statement
• Bank issued phone may not be a good enough phone (neither fish nor fowl)
  

Where could this work: Asia

Why:

• Users in Asia typically buy their own phones. This offering might appeal to the burgeoning value-conscious middle-class in China and India
  
• A weak MNO in the US could work with a strong Bank and an open phone (did somebody say Android) to help MNO's sales and perception in the marketplace.
  

Bank works with device vendor (e.g., Nokia) to offer co-branded phone: Bank partners with device vendor to subsidize NFC phones (with separate secure element)

Advantages:

• Consumers get choice of phone. No compromise in device features
  
• Cost of separate secure element not passed on to the consumer

Disadvantages:

• Would not work where consumers typically get their phones from their MNO (tied to a contract) as the MNO controls the BOM/configuration of the phone. E.g., US
  

Where could this work: Asia

Why

• Consumers buy their own phones.
  
• Device vendor has better brand presence and distribution channels

Trusted Services Manager (TSM): Does somebody have an edge

Gridlock in the NFC ecosystem is about the telco/MNO (e.g., Verizon) and the issuer/bank (e.g., BofA) jostling for control over 'their' customer. On the mobile device, the two verticals (telco and banks) clash. Until the control issue is resolved, NFC deployments will not make progress past the many well-publicized trials. Trusted Service Managers (TSMs) are seen as a way past this impasse. Much has already been written about this issue.

The usual suspects in any TSM discussion are Cassis, Venyon and Vivotech (in alphabetical order). There are others in this space as well. The question for today is, is there any one vendor or approach that has an obvious edge, and why?

Cassis comes from a SIM / OTA background, with a lot of their management coming from Gemalto and the like. Venyon is a JV between Nokia and G&D. Vivotech seems to have a more POS / retail merchant proclivity given their presence in the contactless reader space. From this 50K foot view of the landscape, there seem to be at least two approaches to address this space. One is to approach this from the mobile operator space. Given Cassis's and Venyon's background, they seem to be establishing the telcos as their beachhead. Given Vivotech's background and investors, acquiring banks (POS vendors) and retail merchants seems to be Vivotech's beachhead. It appears that the above divide seems to be extending into the TSM space as well.

In deployments where the telco drives the business case, folks like Venyon and Cassis might win the day. In deployments where the acquirers/merchants are pushing the business case, folks like Vivotech might win the day.

Not withstanding a simplistic two variable view of the world, what are your thoughts? Are there any other factors that will influence the TSM space? Which other vendor/industry might enter the TSM space?

Related Post: When selling shovels is more lucrative: Another look at TSMs 1 year later

NFC POS Terminal deployments in the US

You can find a list of NFC/Contactless readers:

List of MasterCard Paypass readers near you
List of Visa PayWave readers near you

This will be a good resource for all of us to refer to.

PS: I have edited this blog as MasterCard and Visa are maintaining a comprehensive list of merchants accepting contactless cards.

Merchant deployment of Contactless POS terminals in the US

What is the merchant motivation to deploy contactless payments in the US?

The oft cited reasons for merchants to deploy contactless payments are speed and convenience associated with total transaction time. Cash replacement is also cited as a reason.

Consequently, QSR (Quick Serve Restaurants) space, gas stations, convenience stores... seem to be the obvious targets.

What is the motivation for Office Depot, Best Buy... to deploy contactless POS terminals? What would the reasons be for grocery stores to upgrade their infrastructure to contactless? Is the standard equipment (POS terminal) upgrade cycle is sufficient reason for merchant to swap out for the new terminals?

Look forward to hearing your thoughts.